Internet Mega-Trends

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I couldn’t have a look earlier to the well-known KPCB Internet trends presentation. Lots of figures and insights in the 164 pages.

The latest edition of the annual Internet Trends report includes:
1. Key Internet trends showing slowing Internet user growth but strong smartphone, tablet and mobile data traffic growth as well as rapid growth in mobile advertising.
2. Emerging positive efficiency trends in education and healthcare.
3. High-level trends in messaging, communications, apps and services.
4. Data behind the rapid growth in sensors, uploadable / findable / shareable data, data mining tools, and pattern recognition.
5. Context on the evolution of online video.
6. Observations about online innovation in China

Some notes from my side:

  • Internet Users: <10% Y/Y growth & slowing…fastest growth in more difficult to monetize developing markets like India / Indonesia / Nigeria
  • Smartphone Subscribers: +20% strong growth though slowing…fastest growth in underpenetrated markets like China / India / Brazil / Indonesia
  • Tablets : +52% early stage rapid unit growth
  • Mobile Data Traffic : +81% accelerating growth…video = strong driver
  • Smartphone Users = about 30% of 5.2B Mobile Phone User Base
  • Tablet Units = Growing Faster Than PCs Ever Did… +52%
  • Tablet Users = Loads of Growth Ahead… At 56% of Laptops / 28% of Smartphones / 8% of TVs
  • Population penetration and Global users:
    • TVs 78% / 5.5B
    • Mobile Phone 73% / 5.2B
    • Smartphone 22% / 1.6B
    • Laptop+Desktop 21% / 1.5B
    • Tablet 6% / 0.4B
  • Mobile Usage = Continues to Rise Rapidly… At 25% of Total Web Usage vs. 14% Y/Y
  • Average Revenue per User (ARPU) and Mobile % of Monthly Active User (MAU):
    • Google $45
    • Facebook $7.2 / 79%
    • Twitter $3.6 / 78%
  • Healthcare Realities (USA)
    • Costs Up to 17% of GDP, at $2.8T in 2012, +2x as percent of GDP in 35 years
    • Waste = 27% of Spend, $765B of healthcare spend estimated from excess costs: $210B = unnecessary services; $190B = excess administrative; $55B = missed prevention opportunities; $310B = inefficient delivery of care / fraud / inflated prices (2009)
    • Individual Costs Rising, >25% of family income likely to go to healthcare spending in 2015E vs. 18% in 2005
    • Chronic Conditions = +75% of Spend, Most costly = cancer / diabetes / heart disease / hypertension / stroke…1 in 2 Americans has at least 1 chronic condition, 1 in 4 has 2+
  • Healthcare Realities (part II)
    • Digitization of Healthcare Happening
    • Providers Using Fully Functioning EHR (Electronic Health Record): 84% of Hospitals / Academic / Institutional practices
    • 51% (& rising) of office-based practices
    • Consumers Happy to Communicate via Email: 62% for healthcare concerns
    • Digital Health Venture Investments Rising: +39% Y/Y to $1.9B (2013, USA)
    • Examples:
      • Redbrick Health – employer engagement platform = 4:1 ROI savings per participant
      • Teladoc – employer focused telemedicine platform = $798 savings per consultation vs. office visit & ER over 30 days
      • Mango Health – adherence app = 84% Statin adherence vs. 52% market average
      • WellDoc – chronic disease platform = diabetes app prescription with reimbursement
  • Internet Trifecta = Critical Mass of Content + Community + Commerce
    • 1) Content = Provided by Consumers + Pros
    • 2) Community = Context & Connectivity Created by & for Users
    • 3) Commerce = Products Tagged & Ingested for Seamless Purchase
  • Biggest Re-Imagination of All = People Enabled With Mobile Devices + Sensors Uploading Troves of Findable & Sharable Data
  • More Data + More Transparency = More Patterns & More Complexity
    • Transparency : Instant sharing / communication of many things has potential to make world better / safer place but potential impact to personal privacy will remain on-going challenge
    • Patterns : Mining rising volume of data has potential to yield patterns that help solve basic / previously unsolvable problems but create new challenges related to individual rights
  • Big Data Trends
    • 1) Uploadable / Findable / Sharable / Real-Time Data Rising Rapidly
    • 2) Sensor Use Rising Rapidly
    • 3) Processing Costs Falling Rapidly…While The Cloud Rises
    • 4) Beautiful New User Interfaces – Aided by Data-Generating Consumers – Helping Make Data Usable / Useful
    • 5) Data Mining / Analytics Tools Improving & Helping Find Patterns
    • 6) Early Emergence of Data / Pattern-Driven Problem Solving
  • Photos Alone = 1.8B+ Uploaded & Shared Per Day
  • Costs evolution:
    • Compute Costs Declining = 33% Annually, 1990-2013
    • Storage Costs Declining = 38% Annually, 1992-2013
    • Bandwidth Costs Declining = 27% Annually, 1999-2013
    • Smartphone Costs Declining = 5% Annually, 2008-2013

 

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